It’s the scenario every political buff loves: off-year elections right after a new Democratic president has been elected; elections that could very likely swing against said president’s party, no less. The suspense rises, and the speculation abounds, as analysts, pundits, and politicians alike anxiously await the outcome of the governor races in New Jersey, Virginia, and the Congressional race in New York district 23.
In Virginia, it looks as if Republican Bob McDonnell is all but assured an easy victory against his Democratic opponent, Creigh Deeds. A recent Rasmussen report indicates McDonnell has a 13-point lead. This is significant, in a state that went blue in 2006 and 2008, when its Democratic Governor Tim Kaine declared that the “Old Virginny is dead.” Well, the “Old Virginny” (whatever that means) is on its way back from the land of the dead. Or so it seems.
When the Old Dominion voted for Barack Obama in 2008, it was the first time the state went for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson. In other words, it was a big deal. However, it’s an even bigger deal now that only one year later, the state has apparently had a change of heart. One could call it the ultimate slap in the face for Barack Obama. The state that borders Washington, DC apparently doesn’t like what it’s been seeing from across the Potomac.
New Jersey is another story. The governor’s seat is being battled over by Republican and former federal prosecutor Chris Christie and former U.S. Senator, former Goldman Sachs chairman, and incumbent Governor John Corzine. Corzine should really be a shoo-in for the dark, dark blue state. But again, the fact that the race is neck and neck speaks volumes about the Democrat’s agenda in Congress and the White House.
The race also reflects the shift in American’s attitudes concerning personal finances and taxes. Tax cuts have been the prevalent theme in Christie’s campaign and it appears most New Jerseyans are in favor of that. As well they should be, considering that New Jersey citizens are the highest taxed citizens in the country.
And unfortunately for him, Corzine did nothing to fix that. Nor has President Obama’s push for healthcare reform helped Corzine in any way. When taxes are clearly the main issue, revealing a reform bill that many say will raise taxes on the middle class was largely a strategic misdirection on the part of Democrats who would actually like to see Corzine reelected.
The New York Congressional race in the 23rd District also has political junkies salivating over poll numbers, party identifications and predictions. Like Virginia and New Jersey, this race has the potential to send a big message to Washington D.C. Yet this race is marked by one stark contrast. The two major runners are Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman and Democrat Bill Owens. Republican Dede Scozzafava was rejected by voters early on, and has already dropped out of the race.
Like New Jersey, this race is in a dead heat, with polls showing Hoffman and Owens with a narrow lead, depending on which one you look at. The remarkable thing about this election though, is that it is becoming the ultimate testing ground for conservative ideals. In recent weeks, notable Republicans from former presidential candidate Fred Thompson, to U.S. Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC), to vice presidential nominee and former Governor Sarah Palin, endorsed Hoffman over Scozzafava. Why? Because Hoffman truly represents conservative values like limited government, low taxes and individual liberty.
In every way, this race from upstate New York will help redefine the national GOP; a party that has strayed from conservative values for far too long. But that could all be changing now. In 2008, when John McCain (a moderate Republican, at best) won the party’s nomination, advocates argued all conservatives should support him because well, he was the Republican candidate.
But now, having an “R” next to your name is no longer the single qualifier for support from conservatives, as Ms. Scozzafava found out. What matters is principles, ideas and values; not party identification. The mindset of “I’m a conservative first, Republican second,” is making a comeback with the American public, as it should.
Whether it’s New York, Virginia, or New Jersey, each race this year could have a major impact on the 2010 elections. As more and more Democrats in Congress worry about their seats, they are going to be less willing to agree to work with President Obama on certain things like, say, healthcare.
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Amanda Carey is the Editor of The Tiger Town Observer at Clemson University. She has previously worked for Robert Novak and has been published in Reason Magazine and The American Spectator.
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